BMI View: Mozambique has one of Africa’s most robust economies, with strong GDP growth and a positive macroeconomic outlook, but there is a sense that the country’s healthcare and pharmaceutical market has yet to benefit from this top-line growth. Healthcare spending per capita is low, with the majority of recent developments in terms of health infrastructure funded by aid agencies. Medicine shortages characterised the market in 2011 but the government claims these will not be repeated in 2012 – as long as drug theft is combated – and reports of the police seizing counterfeit drugs is a reminder of the abundance of substandard medicines and poor controls in the market. On a positive note, Mozambique is on target to open its state-owned antiretroviral (ARV) production plant, Sociedade Moçambicana de Medicamentos (SMM), in Q312, while Portugaluese company Bluepharma plans to open a subsidiary in Maputo.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: MZN2.31bn (US$80mn) in 2011 to MZN2.51bn (US$94mn) in 2012; +8.5% in local currency and +17.7% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: MZN19.17bn (US$661mn) in 2011 to MZN21.80bn (US$815mn) in 2012; +13.7% in local currency and +23.3% in US dollar terms. Risk/Reward Rating: Mozambique scores 36.1 out of 100 in the Q312 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) and ranks 25th out of 30 in BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional ratings. Mozambique has a below-average score in all categories. In terms of its neighbours, it only outperforms Zimbabwe, which ranks 27th.
Key Trends And Developments
Portuguese generic drugmaker Bluepharma announced in March 2012 that it plans to open a subsidiary in Maputo that will eventually offer pharmaceutical and hospital services, information on drug imports, exports and registration, as well as drug sales and manufacturing.
Mozambique’s state-owned SMM pharmaceutical plant will begin operations in August 2012, according to a statement made by Brazil’s outgoing ambassador to Mozambique, Antonio de Sousa e Silva, in January.
Technical and management support services firm Aecom was awarded a US$14.7mn, five-year contract by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in April 2012 to develop rural health centres, pharmaceutical warehouses, a laboratory and a health sciences education centre.
BMI Economic View: Mozambique is a fast-growing economy with high GDP growth, boosted by exports of its natural resources. Its macroeconomic outlook depends upon the wellbeing of the economies of its key export markets, so Mozambique needs strong demand from the US and the EU to ensure its growth continues. A new Country Partner Strategy with the World Bank, which means Mozambique will receive US$1.04bn in funding between 2012 and 2016, is good news for potential investors.
BMI Political View: Mozambique is a multi-party democratic state. General elections are scheduled for 2014 and BMI does not expect them to be accompanied with civil unrest and market disruptions, although the government must make sure that newfound wealth generated by energy companies trickles down to the poorest segments of the population in order to avoid discontent.