Indian Tractor Industry: “Growth to slow down from current levels in short term” The Tractor industry has always been a barometer for the state of rural economy in India. The Indian tractor market has witnessed a significant rise post liquidity crises of FY08 and FY09. Healthy monsoons in most parts of the country, rise in minimum support price (MSP), favourable farm credit scenario coupled with shortage of agricultural labourers owing to rise in employment opportunities in rural areas through National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) led this growth.
CARE Research believes that multiple use of higher HP tractors (i.e. large tractors), increasing demand from infrastructure projects and rising penetration in western and southern India, which is predominantly a large tractor market, is expected to push large tractor sales by healthy levels in the next 4-5 year period. CARE Research foresees the share of large tractor segment to increase significantly and would surpass mid-size tractor sales by FY16. On exports front, increasing thrust of tractor manufacturers to establish their brand in international markets over the last 7-8 years have fuelled growth in exports. The FY09 and FY10 were challenging years, as exports dropped significantly owing to global economic meltdown. However with economic revival in major export markets, the industry exports touched new heights in FY11.
CARE Research estimates the domestic tractor demand to grow at a higher single-digit level during FY11-FY16 period. This growth would be driven by factors like low penetration levels, rising farm income and healthy agriculture credit scenario. However, in the short term the growth level is expected to shrink owing to higher base effect and concerns over financing scenario on account of increase in the interest rates and tightening in credit disbursements to micro financing companies. CARE Research believes these concerns would fade away in the long-term period. Industry exports are also expected to remain healthy as players are increasingly focusing on enhancing their exports to counter volatility in domestic market and enhance their global presence.
In FY10, almost all the manufacturers reported a healthy rise in their top-line, driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. Operating margins also observed improvement owing to drop in raw material prices. Going forward, it is expected that the industry’s top line will continue to witness a healthy growth scenario; however, the industry would face challenges of rising raw material prices and increase in interest cost, which would strain the bottom line.
CARE Research has developed a detailed statistical model that attempts to forecast the domestic tractor sales. Tractor sales are forecasted based on the agriculture sector GDP growth, net sown area and agriculture credit disbursements. Other qualitative factors like macro-economic outlook, increasing nonagricultural usages and shortage of labourers owing to rise in rural employment under National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), etc have been built in this demand forecasting model.
SECTION- I CARE Research’s Outlook
Comparative cost analysis of tractor and animate power for same amount of work
Segment wise domestic sales outlook
SECTION- II Industry Section
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS AND COMPETITION
Player-wise market share in small tractor category in FY12 (%)
Player-wise market share in medium tractor category in FY12 (%)
Player-wise market share in large tractor category in FY12 (%)
Competition intensity between key players (market share in % in FY12)
Trend in custom duty (%)
Trend in excise duty (%)
Changes in emission norms
Key financial indicators
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Report on Indian Tractor Industry
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